Who Controls What
Oil
Most of the Kurdistan Region's oil is in KDP-controlled territory. This has been the foundation of its economic and political leverage.
Turkey border gate
The main crossing with Turkey is a critical chokepoint for trade, revenue, and regional leverage.
US and external lobbying
Heavy investment in Washington and other capitals strengthens external positioning.
Natural gas
Increasingly important in the regional energy picture, concentrated in PUK areas. Infrastructure investment is underway.
Kirkuk presence
Though outside direct KRG control since 2017, Kirkuk gives the PUK strategic geographic depth.
Baghdad channel
Stronger federal orientation and alliances with rising Iraqi blocs position PUK as the Kurdish interlocutor in the capital.
The balance: KDP holds the established levers: oil, the Turkey gate, external lobbying. PUK is building counterweights: gas infrastructure, Kirkuk depth, and Baghdad alliances. The contest is not about replacing KDP's advantages but offsetting them.